Sober analysis of conflict, deterrence, and the economics of defense.
by Sarah Rolfson
Joined by 6 readers
Deterrence Is a Posture, Not a Press Release
Jun 30, 2026
Layered air defense has become the arm around which everything else is organized. Control of the air is no longer assured by aircraft alone; it is contested by integrated networks…
It is a truism among planners that amateurs study tactics and professionals study logistics, and the current fighting bears it out. The side that can move fuel, ammunition, and sp…
Jun 23, 2026
Alongside the shooting war runs an economic one, fought over energy flows, insurance markets, and access to the financial plumbing of trade. This second front rarely produces dram…
Jun 10, 2026
The Sanctions Are Working — Just Not the Way They Were Sold
Jun 4, 2026
Negotiations Fail on the Details Nobody Discusses in Public
May 29, 2026
Negotiations collapse on the details that never make the press release — sequencing, guarantees, the fate of contested territory, and the question of who verifies compliance. Prin…
May 5, 2026
